With the Telangana Assembly elections only months away, the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) appears to have an edge even as the Congress is galloping to catch up.
By announcing almost all the candidates and hitting the campaign trail well ahead of time and with a series of announcements offering SOPs to different sections, the BRS has rattled both its key rivals -- Congress and BJP.
Despite the apprehension of anti-incumbency after completion of two successive terms in power, the BRS looks more confident of securing another term. It believes that K. Chandrasekhar Rao will become the first leader in south India to score a hat-trick as the Chief Minister.
Political analysts say while there may be anti-incumbency, the BRS does not appear to be facing a major challenge. The party is apparently not facing any public anger as its government is perceived to have done well on several fronts.
Highlighting the achievements of India’s youngest state during the last nine years, the BRS is seeking a fresh mandate.
“KCR (as the Chief Minister is popularly known) may face questions on some unfulfilled promises but there is no major public grouse against his government,” says political analyst Palwai Raghavendra Reddy.
He believes that the large number of beneficiaries of several welfare schemes implemented by KCR government and its fairly good performance on various parameters has given it an edge over its rivals.
Addressing public meetings, the BRS leaders are seeking a fresh mandate on the basis of its performance during the last nine years.
They are also cautioning people against trusting the Congress, which is making all efforts to woo the voters with a slew of promises under ‘six guarantees’.
Terming the Congress promises as unrealistic, the BRS leaders ask why the 'Grand Old Party' is not implementing them in states ruled by it.
“The Congress has no warranty but the party is given guarantees.” This is how BRS working president K. T. Rama Rao is mocking ‘six guarantees’.
“If Congress comes to power, the six things that will happen are farmers will have to suffer with power supply problems, people will start fighting for drinking water, farmers will have to stand in queues for fertilisers, the state will see a new Chief Minister every year, Gram Panchayats will become hamlets, and people will not have access to quality education and healthcare system,” he said at a public meeting.
KTR, as the BRS working president is also known, said the Congress could not give Rs 4,000 pensions in Rajasthan, Karnataka, or Chhattisgarh, but they promised it in Telangana.
The victory in Karnataka elections has infused new energy in Congress. With ‘six guarantees’ it hopes to repeat its Karnataka performance in Telangana.
The rise of Congress has pushed back the BJP to the third position. Before the Karnataka polls in May this year, BJP was seen as the main challenger to BRS. The saffron party was marching ahead aggressively.
KCR, who led the fight for statehood to Telangana and achieved the goal, remains the tallest political figure in the state. There is no one matching his stature either in the Congress or BJP
He is also considered as one of the smartest politicians in the country, known for surprising his opponents with his political tactics.
With BJP no longer seen by BRS as a major challenge, KCR is focusing his efforts to check the Congress.
The speeches of BRS leaders targeting the Congress make it clear that the party treats it as its main opponent.
BRS had bagged 63 seats in 2014 elections to form first government in the new state. It not only retained power in 2018 but improved its tally to 88 in 119-member Assembly. With defection of several MLAs including a dozen from Congress, the BRS increased its strength to over 100.
By announcing 115 candidates on August 21 and by retaining almost all sitting legislators, KCR tried to once again steal the show.
He is likely to come up with more surprises on October 16 when the BRS releases its election manifesto at a huge public meeting planned in Warangal.
This will be the first election after Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) transformed itself as Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) to play a key role in national politics.
This will also be the first election in Telangana without the Telangana sentiment in play.
The Telangana sentiment dominated 2014 and 2018 elections as TRS sought a mandate in the first election to rebuild Telangana and a fresh mandate in 2018 to continue its efforts to turn the state into 'Bangaru' or golden Telangana.
As KCR feels that he has achieved his task of a progressive Telangana, he rechristened TRS as BRS in tune with his national ambitions and with a call to replicate the Telangana model in the rest of the country.
The BRS chief already tried to hardsell the Telangana model by getting leaders from various states to Hyderabad to talk about Rythu Bandhu and other schemes of Telangana.
At every meeting, KCR and other party leaders highlight how Telangana has become a model state with highest per capita income, one of the highest per capita power consumption, a growth rate which is much higher than the national average and innovative schemes for farmers, Dalits and other sections of the society.
BRS with its Dalit Bandhu scheme and various measures will be hoping to receive full support of Dalits, who constitute 10 per cent of the voters. Muslims, who are also about 10 per cent of the electorate, may once again back BRS.
“If BRS gets support of 10-15 per cent voters from the remaining 80 per cent, it will retain power comfortably,” said an analyst.
Though BRS appears to have lost support of the politically influential Reddy community, the votes may get divided between BJP, Congress and others. The same is likely to happen with backward classes, who constitute 50 per cent of the voters.
With continued support of his friendly party All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and the likely split of anti-incumbency votes among multiple players, KCR appears to have an edge.
With no progress on proposed merger with the Congress, YSR Telangana Party (YSRTP) headed by Y.S. Sharmila is likely to enter the fray.
Jana Sena Party (JSP) of actor-politician Pawan Kalyan also plans to contest 32 seats in Telangana.
The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has already announced 20 candidates. It is entering the fray with new vigour under the leadership of R.S. Praveen Kumar, who took voluntary retirement from the Indian Police Service (IPS) to join politics.
With Telangana sentiment not in play in the manner it was seen in previous elections, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) is also expected to flex its muscles to regain lost ground in Telangana.
As BRS has refused to have any poll alliance with the Left parties, their presence may further cut into anti-BRS votes in some pockets.
