The ongoing debate in Andhra Pradesh politics revolves around the possibility of an alliance between the TDP, Jana Sena, and the BJP. While it is certain that the TDP and Jana Sena will contest the upcoming elections together, the presence of BJP remains uncertain.
Political analysts predict that if Jana Sena joins forces with the TDP, it would be detrimental to Pawan Kalyan and the Kapu social group's aspirations for power. Historically, different castes in Andhra Pradesh have held positions of power.
The Kamma community aligned with the TDP, and the Reddy community supported Congress and the YSR Congress Party. Now, the Kapu society sees Pawan Kalyan as their potential leader, hoping to secure the Chief Minister's seat.
However, Pawan Kalyan's Janasena party faces challenges in gaining strength from other communities without the disappearance of either the TDP or the YSRCP. The existing divisions between castes, with BCs supporting the TDP and Dalits and minorities favoring the YSRCP, hinder the growth of Jana Sena. Pawan's strategic decisions will play a crucial role in determining the party's future.
The TDP, still reeling from its defeat in the 2019 elections, seeks an alliance with Jana Sena to increase its chances of winning in 2024. They hope that with Pawan's cooperation, victory is possible and the alliance with the BJP further strengthens their prospects.
Pawan's actions and comments have caused internal turmoil within Jana Sena. There are concerns that his alignment with the TDP and focus on defeating the YSRCP reflect a deviation from Jana Sena's original vision. Critics argue that Jana Sena can only thrive if the TDP weakens.
The electoral outcome will have significant implications for the TDP and its leadership. If the TDP fails to win, its survival would be uncertain, with no clear successor to Chandrababu Naidu. The party's traditional support base, the Kamma community, may seek alternative options, potentially favoring the BJP. However, the strengthening of Congress poses a challenge for Jana Sena, as it could draw support from marginalized groups like Reddys, minorities and dalits traditionally aligned with Congress.
In this complex political landscape, the BJP's national leadership seems hesitant to align with the TDP. Pawan Kalyan has also adjusted his strategy accordingly on the advise of BJP.
It is evident that the strength of Jana Sena relies heavily on the TDP's downfall. Although his strategy remains undisclosed, aggressive steps have been taken internally to mobilize the anti-government vote towards Jana Sena.
While lower-level BJP leaders may express different views, the national leadership favors maintaining a separate stance from the TDP. This is evident in the exclusion of the TDP from a meeting of NDA partners in Bengaluru and the lack of attention given to Chandrababu Naidu during his visit to Delhi.
Jana Sena dies if TDP wins and Jana Sena rules if TDP dies. So, though TDP might not smell the strategy of building Janasena on the grave of TDP, already BJP implemented it and Pawan Kalyan is playing his role with his Varahi Yatra.
Usha Chowdary
