If an opinion survey commissioned by Economic Times comes true, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader Arvind Kejriwal will create a history by defeating the sitting Congress Chief Minister of Delhi Sheila Dikshit by a huge margin in the coming Assembly elections.
The most important message from this possible victory is that India’s democracy is vibrant and exemplary.
A middle class social activist, who quit his cosy job to work for social and political reforms, can take on the might ruling party in the heart of the national capital and emerge victorious.
This is a huge positive signal and speaks volumes about the strength of democracy in any society.
The odds against Kejriwal and his fledgling AAP are massive. They are up against a powerful establishment which has endless resources of money and power. But, the fact that Kejriwal has been able to breach the citadel reflects the strength of the people’s voice in a democracy.
A survey of 2,101 registered voters in Delhi's prestigious New Delhi assembly seat shows that Kejriwal is winning the fight, due to be held on December 4, hands down, trouncing sitting legislator and three-time Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit by a wide margin.
The survey, conducted between Nov 22 and November 24 and covering half the 188 polling booths in the constituency, showed that if elections were held during those dates, Kejriwal stood to win more than 40% of the votes - 41% of male voters and 42% of female voters - followed by BJP candidate Vijender Gupta and then Dikshit at the third position.
A defeat for Dikshit, whose popularity political pundits have long rated higher than that of Congress and whose victory has always been considered a slam dunk, and especially at the hands of a debutant such as Kejriwal could send shockwaves across the capital and possibly even national politics, providing fodder to critics who will spare no attempt at projecting it as a foretaste of what awaits the party in 2014.
If it happens, it could also mark one of the biggest electoral upsets of all time.
A defeat for Dikshit could give Kejriwal the halo of a giant slayer and AAP a fair shot at trying for a Parliament presence in 2014.
The survey, conducted using face-to-face interviews and during a period AAP was on the defensive buffeted by allegations of corrupt practices by some of its candidates, shows the fledgling party enjoys the support of all segments of society, especially young voters.
Kejriwal, 45, was favoured by 49% of voters aged between 18 and 25 years compared with 19% and 20% for Congress and BJP, respectively.
Some 21% of the respondents in the poll were in the 18-25 years age group. AAP fared better than its rivals in all age brackets and across religious and caste lines.
TNS has projected a margin of error of 2.12% and a 95% confidence level in its results. The New Delhi assembly constituency, a high-profile VIP seat, is in many ways a microcosm of the entire city.
