Yet another latest survey conducted by an independent pre-election survey agency ELECSENSE has predicted that the YSR Congress party led by chief minister Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy will return to power for a second successive term, albeit with a reduced margin.
According to the survey results shared to the media, the YSRCP will win 121 seats in the 175-member assembly, a fall of 30 seats compared to 2019 assembly elections.
Needless to say, these 30 seats will go to the Telugu Desam Party-Jana Sena Party alliance, which will end up with 53 seats.
As regards the vote share, the YSRCP will get 49.14 percent votes, a slender fall from 49.94 percent it got in 2019. The vote share of the TDP-Jana Sena combine will be 44.34 percent, which is slightly lower than the combined vote share of the two parties in 2019, which was 45.41 percent.
So, there would be reduction in the voting percentage of the two parties, if they fight together, rather than fighting separately. This is rather surprising, at a time when there is a general perception that both the parties will record an increase in their voting percentage of 2019 – 39.17 of TDP and 6.24 of Jana Sena.
As expected, the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress will draw a blank in the coming elections. While there will be a marginal improvement in the vote share of the Congress (may be due to Sharmila factor) from 1.17 percent to 1.21 percent, the voting percentage of the BJP will come down from 0.84 percent to 0.56 percent.
ELECSENSE has claimed that it has conducted a comprehensive pre-poll political survey aimed at understanding the diverse perspectives within the population. The survey sample was carefully designed to ensure representation across various demographic factors.
The Survey was conducted in the Time Period: Dec 1 2023 to Jan 12 2024, taking a a sample size of 88,700. All the samples were collected by direct contact with the voters and through our in-house survey application. The margin of error presented here is 3% with a confidence interval of 95%, it claimed.
