Yet another pre-election survey conducted by a national news channel on Friday revealed that YSR Congress party led by chief minister Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy is going to return to power in the state with comfortable majority in the forthcoming general elections.
The opinion poll conducted by India TV-CNX, however, was confined to Lok Sabha elections, but if the results are interpolated with the outcome of the assembly elections, the YSRCP is going to come back to power for a second term.
The India TV-CNX survey predicted that the YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh would get 18 Lok Sabha seats in the coming general elections.
Taking an average of seven assembly segments for each parliamentary constituency, it accounts to 126 seats for Jagan party in the 175-member assembly, compared to 151 seats it won in 2019.
The survey predicted that the Telugu Desam Party led by N Chandrababu Naidu would get the remaining seven seats, compared to three seats it had won in 2019 Lok Sabha elections; so, a gain of four Lok Sabha seats.
This would mean it can get around 49-50 assembly seats, compared to 23 seats it had won in 2019 assembly elections. Thus, the TDP would regain only some lost ground, but not enough to come to power. It is definitely a big setback for Naidu, who is desperate to return to power.
The survey predicted that both the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress would score a duck in the elections.
However, the India TV-CNX opinion poll appears to have not taken into account the Jana Sena Party led by power star Pawan Kalyan at all, which is supposed to be the most crucial factor. Maybe, the agency has treated it as part of the BJP.
If Pawan Kalyan joins hands with Naidu, then there might be slight variations in the overall tally of the YSRCP and the TDP. Yet, the chances of Jagan to come back to power in the state appears to be certain.
On the other hand, in Telangana, the India TV- CNX Opinion Poll has predicted that the BRS would win eight Lok Sabha seats. Translating them into assembly seats, the party would end up getting only 56 assembly seats, thereby falling short of the absolute majority mark of 60 in the 119-member assembly.
The survey, surprisingly predicted that the BJP would stand second in the race by wining six Lok Sabha seats – it means it would get 42 assembly seats. On the other hand, the Congress is likely to bag only two seats which would mean just 14 assembly seats and the AIMIM to again settle with Hyderabad seat only and seven assembly seats.
Thus, the BRS is likely to lose one Lok Sabha seat in Telangana while BJP may gain 2 seats if Lok Sabha elections are held today.
The survey predicted that the BRS is likely to get 40 percent of votes in Telangana, followed by 28 percent by the BJP. The Congress is expected to remain at the third spot with just 23 percent votes.
