A latest opinion poll conducted by India TV in association with survey agency CNX across the country has indicated that Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSR Congress party might lose the elections with a slender margin in the upcoming assembly elections in Andhra Pradesh.
However, the interesting point, according to the survey analysis, is that Jagan’s main rival Telugu Desam Party led by N Chandrababu Naidu might not get the absolute majority mark of 90 assembly seats and that it has to depend on its political allies – Jana Sena and the Bharatiya Janata Party.
The survey results which were telecast on India TV channel in the last two days were primarily related to the Lok Sabha elections, but if they are extrapolated with the assembly election results, it is going to be a coalition government in Andhra Pradesh, rather than a TDP government.
The opinion poll was conducted between March 1 and 30 all over the country with a sample size of around 1.80 lakh people.
According to this survey in Andhra Pradesh, the National Democratic Alliance comprising the TDP, Jana Sena and the BJP, will win 15 Lok Sabha seats.
Among them, the TDP will get 12 MP seats out of 17 seats it is contesting and the BJP will get 3 MP seats out of six seats it is contesting. The Jana Sena Party which is contesting in two Lok Sabha seats, may draw a blank.
Extrapolating these results with the outcome of the state assembly elections, the TDP will get 84 assembly seats.
The BJP is contesting only 10 assembly seats and Jana Sena in 21 assembly seats, the BJP’s three Lok Sabha seats might not exactly translate into 21 assembly seats – the TDP might get three or four assembly seats, provided there is a transfer of votes among the parties.
On the other hand, the opinion poll said the YSRCP will get 10 MP seats, which will translate into 70 assembly seats. If there is no transfer of votes among the NDA alliance partners, the YSRCP might get four or five more assembly seats.
In any case, Naidu’s party will come closer to the absolute majority mark of 90 assembly seats and it may have to depend on the Jana Sena Party and the BJP to form the government.
So, it is not going to be a smooth sailing for the TDP, assuming that the India Today-CNX survey is correct!
