YSR Congress party led by chief minister Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy is set to return to power for a second successive term in 2024 Andhra Pradesh assembly elections, irrespective of whether there will be an alliance between the Telugu Desam Party and Jana Sena or even if Bharatiya Janata Party joins the alliance.
This was revealed in an independent survey conducted by a professional organisation involved in the pre-poll surveys. Though the exact sample size of the survey is not immediately known, the agency claimed that it was based on face-to-face personal deep interactions with the voters.
“The interactions covered all the situations to study the voters’ mood towards the government, opinion on the sitting MLA or in-charge of the constituency, caste census, caste-wise voters’ mood towards the candidate, anti-incumbency factor, possible alliances among the parties etc.,” the survey agency said.
The agency said the margin of error in the survey is 2 percent and it was done at 95% confidence level.
According to the survey, the YSRC would return to power for a second successive term albeit with truncated majority. It said the YSRC would get around 46% vote share across entire the state, as against 49.9 percent it secured in 2019.
The Telugu Desam Party would be getting around 34% vote share across entire the state, while Jana Sena Party may get around 14% votes. But if TDP and Jana Sena enter the alliance and fight the polls together, the alliance will get only 40% votes, while YSRCP will retain its vote share of 46%.
The survey said Jana Sena would fare better and get 32% vote share in Machilipatnam, Eluru, Narsapuram, Amalapuram and Kakinada Parliament constituencies.
According to the survey, if there is no alliance between the TDP and Jana Sena, the YSRC will get 118-130 assembly seats and 19-21 Lok Sabha seats. The TDP will end up with 39-46 assembly seats and 2-4 Lok Sabha seats. The Jana Sena-BJP combine will get 3-5 assembly seats and 0-1 Lok Sabha seats. There would be a tough fight in 15 assembly and four Lok Sabha seats.
If there is an alliance between the TDP and Jana Sena, then the YSRC will get 100-110 assembly seats and 15-17 Lok Sabha seats. The TDP will get 45-57 seats and 5-7 Lok Sabha seats, while its alliance partner Jana Sena will get 6-12 assembly seats and 2-3 Lok Sabha seats. There will be tough fight in 19 assembly seats and 3 Lok Sabha seats.
The survey also pointed out that several YSRC MLAs/ministers are facing strong-anti-incumbency atmosphere in the state and they might lose their seas.
They include: Amalapuram - Pinipe Viswarupu; Santhanuthalapadu - TJR Sudhakar Babu; Kadiri – P Venkata Sidda Reddy, Udayagiri - M. Chandrasekhar Reddy; Ponnuru - Kilari Venkata Rosaiah; Penukonda - Malagundla Sankaranarayana; Machilipatnam - Perni Venkataramaiah; Anakapalli - Amarnath Gudivada; Sattenapalli - Ambati Rambabu and Bheemili - Muttamsetti Srinivasa Rao.
