All said and done, the forthcoming elections to Andhra Pradesh state assembly are going to witness a tough contest between YSR Congress party and Telugu Desam Party-Jana Sena Party combine, as both the sides are fighting their hearts out to win the prestigious battle and come to power.
YSRC chief and chief minister Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy is confident that his welfare schemes and social engineering will fetch him victory for the second successive time, while the TDP led by N Chandrababu Naidu is of the view that there is a massive anti-incumbency among the people and his party would capture power with the support of Jana Sena led by power star Pawan Kalyan.
Under these circumstances, there is going to be an intense battle between the two sides. Any tilt of neutral votes this way or that way would affect the chances of both the parties. Every vote will count for them when the fight is tight.
The TDP and Jana Sena Party forged the alliance with a view to preventing anti-incumbency vote. Already, they are worried that if the BJP doesn’t join the alliance and fights independently, it will split the anti-establishment vote at least to some extent in key constituencies.
Now, there are reports that Jagan’s sister Y S Sharmila is all set to enter Andhra Pradesh politics and she will lead the Andhra Pradesh Congress Committee. Though the Congress is virtually a dead horse, Sharmila’s entry may breathe some life into it.
There is every possibility that several disgruntled YSRC leaders who have no chance of defecting to the TDP and Jana Sena Party, might rally behind her. If not now, the Congress has the fair chance of regaining its lost ground by 2029.
Under these circumstances, the Congress has a chance of improving its voting percentage from less than one percent vote share it had got in 2019.
“Even if there is a margin improvement in the vote share of the Congress, it will have an impact on the prospects of the main contenders,” an analyst said.
Now, who will face that impact – YSRCP or the TDP-Jana Sena combine? One section of analysts says since those who will be rallying behind Sharmila would be mostly disgruntled leaders of YSRCP, the Congress would eat into the Jagan’s vote bank.
However, if the Congress splits the anti-establishment vote, it will affect the chances of the TDP-Jana Sena and it will upset all the hopes of Naidu to come back to power and Jagan will scrape through.
“But it all depends on how Sharmila goes about with her campaign. It will be an interesting scenario,” the analyst added.
