On the first day, The Kerala Story is expected to edge out Guardians of the Galaxy 3 in collections, with both films heading towards the 7 crore nett region.
The Kerala Story is performing better in mass circuits, so when the circuit figures come in the morning, it's likely that the film will cross 7.5 crore nett, and possibly even more.
This is a remarkable achievement as the collections are much better than many recent mainstream films such as Bhediya, Cirkus, and Shehzada, which had some star power.
The film's controversial nature and blatant negativity towards a community may not have been seen in Indian cinema before, and this has become the selling point of the film.
Essentially, the film has an agenda, and it has worked in its favour. It remains to be seen how much support the film can get from political groups and corporations to further push this agenda. This is how box office success works in China, with the biggest grossers being films that push a certain agenda.
The collections of The Kerala Story are a sight for sore eyes for exhibitors, especially after the disappointment of Jawaan being postponed and Kisi Ka Bhai Kisi Ki Jaan dropping fast.
The Kerala Story is similar to The Kashmir Files, but its opening is double that of the latter, and it's a straight hit in terms of box office on day one. Now it remains to be seen how far it can go.
Guardians of the Galaxy 3 has managed decent business of around 7 crore nett, but its driven by advance bookings, so it needs better first-day collections. Despite similar collections, the footfalls of The Kerala Story are expected to be 60-70% more.
