Donald Trump is projected to become the first Republican in two decades to secure the popular vote in a U.S. presidential election, as his path to the presidency solidified with key swing state victories, including North Carolina and Georgia. These wins have narrowed the chances of Democratic candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris reaching the White House.
The former president is positioned to reclaim the White House, potentially becoming the first Republican to win the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004, when Bush received 62 million votes and 286 electoral votes, defeating Democrat John Kerry, who garnered 59 million votes and 251 electoral votes.
Reviewing voter data from the past two decades, Barack Obama holds the largest popular vote victory, achieving 69.5 million votes (52.9%) and 365 electoral votes in 2008. His 2012 re-election, while still decisive, saw a slight decrease to 51.1% of the popular vote and 332 electoral votes.
In contrast, the 2016 election delivered an unusual result, with Trump securing the presidency through 304 electoral votes despite only 46.1% of the popular vote, while Hillary Clinton won 48.2%, leading by a 2.1% margin but still falling short in the electoral count.
In 2020, Joe Biden won both a clear popular vote and electoral majority, securing 51.3% of the vote and 306 electoral votes. Trump received 74.2 million votes and 232 electoral votes that year.
This election saw Trump gain early leads in crucial swing states, notably North Carolina and Georgia. However, the most significant win was Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, which has brought him closer to reclaiming the White House. Combined with strong performances in Republican strongholds like Texas and Florida, these wins have given Trump a substantial advantage in the electoral count.
As results poured in, Kamala Harris’s campaign scrambled to regain momentum. Despite strong showings in Democratic strongholds, her path to victory became increasingly challenging. Harris’s campaign headquarters advised supporters that her best chance lay in securing the "Blue Wall" states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. With Pennsylvania leaning toward Trump, all eyes have turned to Michigan and Wisconsin.
Election night showcased contrasting scenes: at Washington, D.C.’s Howard University, a historically Black college, excitement among Harris’s supporters faded as Trump’s lead grew. Meanwhile, Trump supporters at Mar-a-Lago in Florida celebrated early successes, bolstered by his strong swing state performance.
If confirmed, Trump’s victory would make him the oldest president at the time of inauguration and the second in history, after Grover Cleveland, to serve non-consecutive terms.
